Without reaching an agreement with Russian banks, analysts say, any debt settlement required for the restructuring of the indebted food and retail conglomerate Agrokor would not be possible. In addition, getting a deal that all debtors, suppliers and shareholders would be happy with simply cannot be achieved.
"A deal could have happened much sooner, because Sberbank's involvement was key to the whole process. They are the biggest single creditor, and they very easily came to an agreement with other large creditors," Novotny said.
An outcome in which Agrokor's property will be transferred to a newly established "twin" company is similar to the scenario already used in Slovenia when the Nova Ljubljanska Banka (NLB) was formed in the 1990s, economist Damir Novotny in an interview with Tportal on Tuesday.
"This (restructuring) model was used before in the case of Ljubljanska Banka. Back then, they passed a special law in Slovenia on that bank, which had subsidiaries all over the region. And only its assets - but not its debts - were transferred to the newly established bank," Novotny added.
Ljubljanska Banka was a large state-owned Slovenian bank with subsidiaries across Yugoslavia which collapsed in the early 1990s. Via a special law, its assets were transferred to a new state-owned NLB which was established in 1994, but without NLB inheriting any of its financial obligations. This then led to lengthy legal battles with bank's depositors outside of Slovenia who had lost their savings in the bank collapse, and the issue grew into a decades-long strain on Croatia-Slovenia relations.
Although the settlement framework envisions exchanging debt for equity in the "new" Agrokor company, it is still unclear how the shares would be divided up among individual creditors.
But according to media speculations, Russian banks Sberbank and VTB are likely to get around 43-45 percent in the new company, bond holders led by Knighthead fund could get around 23-25 percent (including 12 percent for Knighthead itself), Croatian banks would get some 10 percent, and all suppliers (including Adris and Franck) about 8 percent of the stake in the new Agrokor, Tportal reported.